What Can You Conclude?
A young man sits alone in a café.
Most Visitors Conclude
-
He has just come from outside.
-
He is waiting for someone.
-
He enjoys coffee.
What We Actually Observe
-
He is holding a cup.
-
His lenses are darkened.
-
He is looking directly at the camera.
Possible Deductions
He is engaged with the drink rather than preparing to leave immediately.
Confidence: Low–Medium.
Warm cups encourage prolonged negotiations with gravity.
He may have recently come from bright outdoor conditions.
Confidence: Medium.
Photochromic lenses exist. They enjoy complicating otherwise respectable theories.
He is aware of the photographer.
Confidence: Very High.
Stealth photography has a remarkably poor success rate once eye contact has been established.
Facts are stubborn.
Interpretations are imaginative.
A deduction is simply an interpretation that has completed significantly more paperwork than the others.
What Can You Conclude?
A young man sits alone in a café.
Most Visitors Conclude
-
He has just come from outside.
-
He is waiting for someone.
-
He enjoys coffee.
What We Actually Observe
-
He is holding a cup.
-
His lenses are darkened.
-
He is looking directly at the camera.
Possible Deductions
He is engaged with the drink rather than preparing to leave immediately.
Confidence: Low–Medium.
Warm cups encourage prolonged negotiations with gravity.
He may have recently come from bright outdoor conditions.
Confidence: Medium.
Photochromic lenses exist. They enjoy complicating otherwise respectable theories.
He is aware of the photographer.
Confidence: Very High.
Stealth photography has a remarkably poor success rate once eye contact has been established.
Facts are stubborn.
Interpretations are imaginative.
A deduction is simply an interpretation that has completed significantly more paperwork than the others.
His lenses are darkened.
He is holding a cup.
He is looking directly at the camera.
You Miss More Than You Think.
People notice conclusions.
Observers notice evidence.
The gap between the two is where deduction begins.
Sherlock Holmes Was Never the Interesting Part.
The interesting part was that everyone kept assuming he possessed extraordinary abilities despite the repeated inconvenience of him explaining, often at unnecessary length, exactly how he reached his conclusions.
The mythology survived.
The methodology was quietly misplaced.
The Deductivist concerns itself almost entirely with the latter.
Sherlock Holmes Was Never the Interesting Part.
The interesting part was that everyone kept assuming he possessed extraordinary abilities despite the repeated inconvenience of him explaining, often at unnecessary length, exactly how he reached his conclusions.
Three Departments.
Because reality has proven unexpectedly unwilling to organise itself.
Archive
Read analyses, essays and breakdowns.
Methodology
Study the principles behind observation and inference.
Cases
Apply the method through interactive investigations.
Latest Articles
Vyjednávání končetin
Aneb proč o vás vaše paže vědí víc, než jste si dovolili přiznat Paže se nepohybují náhodně. Vyjednávají mezi rovnováhou a vystavením. Tentýž pohyb může znamenat různé věci. O tom, kterou, rozhoduje kontext. Většina lidí si toho rozdílu nikdy nevšimne. Což na existenci toho rozdílu mění jen velmi málo. ◇ ——— ◇ ——— ◇ Tělo si udržuje základní nastavení. Za běžných podmínek se paže pohybují opačně než nohy v tichém aktu protiváhy. Systém dává přednost efektivitě, kdykoli je to možné. Bohužel...
Observer
A measured introduction.
Selected articles.
Public archive.
Occasional field material.
Enough to become dangerous.
Analyst
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Complete Breakdowns.
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